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Will Ukraine be ready?
For months Western intelligence analysts have been warning about a massive Russian offensive slated for early spring. But the decision to send modern battle tanks to Ukraine may have hastened Vladimir Putin’s timeline.
The big Russian attack is imminent
On February 1st, Ukraine’s Secretary of National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov told Sky News that a new Russian attack was on its way.
Preparing for maximum escalation
“Russia is preparing for maximum escalation,” Danilov said during his interview. “It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training.”
Ukraine's isn't excluding any attack scenario
“When it comes to an offensive from different directions, as of now, I can say that we are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks,” Danilov added.
“These will be defining months in the war”
While concerned about the important fights to come, Danilov also noted that this could be a critical turning point in the war. “These will be defining months in the war.”
A spring offensive becomes a winter attack
Ukrainian officals have long warned that Russia was preparing something in the country’s north, east, and south after the spring muddy season was over. But it looks like Putin’s timeline for the attack may have been pushed forward.
The assault could start within weeks
New information leaked by Ukranian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov during an interview with the French media suggested that Russia has amassed roughly 500,000 for an assault that could start within weeks.
Russian troops are massing at the borders
“Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more,” Reznikov said.
Reznikov believes the strike will happen in the east or south
Reznikov also said that he believed the Russians would probably strike in eastern or southern Ukraine rather than in the north as some analysts feared.
Evidence for an imminent offensive in the east
In Luhansk Oblast, Russian authorities have shut down mobile internet services according to the Institute for the Study of War, likely so they can conceal new force deployments in the area for their coming offensive.
“The big battle is coming”
“The big battle is coming,” a senior sergeant in Ukraine’s 56th motorized infantry brigade named Vitaly told The Guardian’s, Julian Borger.
Activity at the front is increasing
“There is more activity in these past couple of weeks with shelling from artillery and even from tanks,” Vitaly added, “but they don’t send infantry over the line because they’re scared.”
Preparing for the Russian assault
Vitaly is part of a group of soldiers in Ukraine’s Zaprizhiza Oblast who have been preparing for Russia’s next big offensive since the beginning of the fall.
A Russian offensive is risky for both sides
“Mounting a major offensive in this coming phase of the war will be an enormous undertaking loaded with risk for either side in the conflict,” Borger wrote.
Attacking will cost more lives and machines
“Attacking fixed positions has always been more costly in human lives and machinery than defending them,” Borger added.
But Ukrainian soldiers are still worried
Borger also noted that there was a “growing sense of urgency” among Ukraine’s battle-hardened troops who want to take the fight to Russian forces before they could attack Ukraine’s defense lines.
Ukraine needs more equipment
The problem doesn’t lie in the Ukranian forces will to fight, though, but rather their lack of the right equipment needed to fight.
Just six tanks could help Vitaly crush the Russians in his sector
“If we had just six tanks and the artillery to cover them,” Vitaly told Borger, “we would break their lines right here and really F them up.”
Will Western tanks arrive in time?
Unfortunately, the tanks promised by Ukraine’s Western allies are unlikely to arrive in time to help head off a Russian offensive in the next few weeks. But they will be very useful for the Ukranian Armed Force's eventual counter-offensive.
Ukraine's previous counter-attacks
Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zeluzhnyi has achieved a lot of success with his extremely well-timed counter-offensives, previously retaking the majority of Kharkiv Oblast and all of the Kherson Oblast’s territory north of the Dnieper.
Can General Zeluzhnyi save the situation?
If Russia’s next offensive is able to break through Ukranian defense lines, General Zeluzhnyi may be able to pull off another stunning victory after Russian forces exhaust themselves.
